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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."